Predictions for Q4 2024 - Ruled by AI Robots?

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Somehow, we’re mid-way through September and hurtling through to the final quarter of 2024. With that in mind, I thought I’d take a look at my predictions from the start of the year to see how I’m doing, and ponder what may happen in the the final three months of the year.

First things first, these were my guesses for 2024:

At Least Two Streaming Services Will Merge
Blogging is Back
Elon Musk Will Sell Twitter
There Will be an AI Backlash
Apple TV+ Will Buy More Sports Rights

As you can see, my predictions are, predictably, proving to be terrible so far! We have not seen streamers formally merge, nor has Elon Musk sold Twitter. In fact, talk of him doing so has rather died down. Apple is clearly interested in buying more sports rights for TV+, but nothing new has been announced so far. (Amazon looks to be upping its game though.)

On a couple of other predictions, I think I’m faring a little better. We may not have had a mass outbreak of new bloggers, but with the likes of M.G. Siegler’s Spyglass continuing, the format still has some life in it. I definitely think people are becoming increasingly sensitive to the need to own your own work.

There is a murmuring of distrust around AI too, particularly around the accuracy of LLMs’ outputs.

Sports Right, Election Scrutiny, AI Battles

So where does this leave us for Q4 2024? Maybe Apple TV+ will get involved in the next tranche of WNBA packages. The US election will lead to growing tumult on, and scrutiny of, Twitter too. As for streamers merging, well… I’m now not expecting anything dramatic to happen.

It is AI where I still think there could still be movement. As the year has gone on we’ve seen a number of deals done between publishers and AI companies (mostly OpenAI), as well as some legal battles between them. The New York Times suing OpenAI is the most high-profile. While I think many feel we’re still destined to be ruled by robots, there is a palpable sense of scepticism too. Knowing (good) work comes from an actual human is becoming exponentially more valuable.

One thing I’m happy to predict. We’re in for a few more surprises before the clock strikes midnight on 31st December!